By: Kenneth Appiah Bani.
Fitch Solutions has forecast that the Ghanaian cedi will end 2025 at GH¢15.50 to the US dollar, with an average annual exchange rate of GH¢15.30. This projection surpasses the GH¢14.00 year-end estimate by Absa Bank, despite the cedi beginning the year trading at GH¢15.83 to the dollar.
In its latest report, “High Gold Prices Will Shield Ghanaian Economy From Tariff Fallout”, the UK-based research firm indicated that Ghana’s central bank is likely to prioritize currency stability, buoyed by high global gold prices.
“We expect the Bank of Ghana to focus on keeping the cedi stable, facilitated by elevated gold prices,” the report stated. “Amid ongoing uncertainty surrounding US trade policy, expectations of interest rate cuts by the US Federal Reserve, and continued geopolitical tensions, our commodities team forecasts gold prices will average a record US$3,100 per ounce in 2025 a 29.7% increase from 2024.”
Additionally, Fitch highlighted a decline in Ghana’s energy import bill due to falling oil prices, which is expected to improve the country’s external position. The report predicts a record current account surplus of 6.9% of GDP by year-end.
Ghana’s foreign exchange reserves are also expected to rise significantly, from US$6.4 billion to US$11.5 billion, enabling the central bank to better manage potential volatility in the cedi.
Cedi Rallies with 17.17% Appreciation
Despite the year end forecast, the cedi has shown strong performance in 2025. As of May 19, the local currency had appreciated by 17.17% against the US dollar, trading at GH¢13.50 in the retail market.
This rally has positioned the cedi as the world’s best performing currency so far this year. Last week alone, it gained 2.3% week on week against the dollar and 3.5% against the euro.
